A bitter 2-1 defeat at the hands of CONCACAF rival Panama last time out has left Team USA (1-0-1, 3 PTS, +1 GD) teetering on the brink of elimination at the 2024 Copa America.
While they currently sit ahead of Panama (1-0-1, 3 PTS, -1 GD) in the standings due to goal differential, Panama faces group-worst Bolivia (0-0-2, 0 PTS, -7 GD) tonight, while the USA has to tangle with group-leading Uruguay (2-0-0, 6 PTS, +7 GD) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
Both games will kickoff at 9:00 pm ET. The USA is listed as a slight +159 favorite to win at bet365, with Uruguay at +200 and the draw at +230.
Panama is a -173 favorite to pick up the full three points against Bolivia and, if they win by a significant margin, may go through no matter what USA does against Uruguay.
USA vs Uruguay Predictions
Uruguay +0.5 (-200)
Over 2.5 goals (+124)
Panama to qualify from Group C (-125)
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 26-8-1 (+20.17 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
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Looking at recent results, it s inexplicable to me that Team USA is favored in Monday s match with Uruguay. While head coach Marcelo Bielsa is suspended, that s of little consequence once the ball is actually kicked. He has his team functioning at arguably the highest level in the world right now.
While Uruguay went just 1-2-1 in four friendlies leading up to the Copa, their recent results in competitive fixtures speaks for itself. They sit second to Argentina in 2026 CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying (4-1-1) with the best goal differential among the ten teams (+8). Over their last three qualifiers, they dominated Bolivia (3-0), stunned Argentina (2-0) in Buenos Aires, and were fully deserving of a 2-0 home victory over Brazil, a game in which they held the Seleção without a shot on target.
Across those 270 minutes, they surrendered just three shots on target (all to Argentina) and 1.04 xGA.
Uruguay s performance at the Copa has been equally impressive, albeit against lesser competition, running over Panama 3-1 (1.68 xGF to .054 xGA) and Bolivia 5-0 (2.64 xGF to 0.19 xGA).
One could argue that this match means little to Uruguay, who will finish first in the group barring a massive swing in goal differential. But technically Uruguay isn t even assured of progression yet, and this is an opportunity to prevent the hosts from progressing. The USA represents a potential semifinal opponent and one of the last things Uruguay wants is to face the USMNT again in hostile territory on July 10.
Team USA started the tournament with a never-in-doubt 2-0 win over the Bolivians, when Christian Pulisic staked the USMNT to a 1-0 lead just two minutes into the game. While they allowed Bolivia to generate three shots on target, they weren t high-quality chances and the USA conceded just 0.13 xGA.
Disaster struck early against Panama when Timothy Weah was shown red for a punch to the head of Roderick Miller. Folarin Balogun still managed to give ten-man USA the lead just minutes later, but Panama grinded out a 2-1 win to keep their hopes of advancing alive and well.
The loss was USA s third on home soil in its last seven matches, and its fourth overall in its last eight; they were also obliterated by Colombia 5-1 at home in a pre-tournament friendly on June 8, fell 1-0 at home to Slovenia in a friendly on January 20, and lost 2-1 away to Trinidad Tobago on November 11.
Weah remains suspended for tonight s game, and it s wing back Sergio Dest is still out with an ACL injury, meaning 21-year-old Joe Scally should earn his third straight start. While the young defender has impressed, in a game where USA needs goals, Dest would certainly be the preferred option if he was healthy.
On the whole, it s hard to see the USA picking up three points against a Uruguay team playing as well as it is, though I do like the potential for a high-scoring game as the USMNT is forced into attack mode from the opening kick.
Best USA vs Uruguay Odds
